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An increase in the upper-limit intensity of hurricanes with global warming was suggested on theoretical grounds by M.I.T. Professor Kerry Emanuel in 1987. In the late 1990s, Knutson, Tuleya, and Kurihara at GFDL/NOAA began simulating samples of hurricanes from both the present-day climate and from a greenhouse-gas warmed climate. This was done by “telescoping-in” on coarsely resolved tropical storms in GFDL’s global climate model using the high-resolution GFDL hurricane prediction model ( Figure 12 ). A research report describing this work was published in Science (1998), with a more detailed paper in Climate Dynamics (1999, vol. 15). All of these studies, as well as our more recent ones, include the moderating effect of atmospheric stabilization aloft under high CO 2 conditions, rather than simply increasing the sea surface temperature alone.

In a follow-up study , which appeared in the Journal of Climate(2001), NOAA scientists Knutson and Tuleya teamed up with Isaac Ginis and Weixing Shen of the University of Rhode Island to explore the climate warming/ hurricane intensity issue using hurricane model coupled to a full ocean model. The coupled model was used to simulate the “cool SST wake” generated by the hurricanes as they moved over the simulated ocean ( Angara Tennis Diamond Eternity Bracelet in White Gold ybK7hujGVn
). The model simulations including this additional feedback still showed a similar percentage increase of hurricane intensity under warm climate conditions as the original model without ocean coupling.

A comprehensive idealized hurricane intensity modeling study by Knutson and Tuleya, published in Journal of Climate (2004), confirms the general conclusions of previous studies but makes them more robust by using future climate projections from nine different global climate models and four different versions of the GFDL hurricane model. The GFDL hurricane model used for the study is an enhanced resolution version of the model used to predict hurricanes operationally at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. According to this latest study, an 80 year build-up of atmospheric CO2 at 1%/yr (compounded) leads to roughly a one-half category increase in potential hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale and an 18% increase in precipitation near the hurricane core. A 1%/yr CO2 increase is an idealized scenario of future climate forcing. As noted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is considerable uncertainty in projections of future radiative forcing of earth’s climate. A criticism of our paper by Michaels et al. is responded to.

An implication of the GFDL studies is that if the frequency of tropical cyclones remains the same over the coming century, a greenhouse-gas induced warming may lead to an increasing risk globally in the occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms.

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Interpreter Staff
February 17, 2016
Russia Update
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LIVE UPDATES: Iran’s Defense Minister has made an unannounced visit to Moscow, and Russian bombers have made an unannounced approach off the UK’s coast

Welcome to our column, Russia Update , where we will be closely following day-to-day developments in Russia, including the Russian government’s foreign and domestic policies.

Russia Update

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S-300s in Fact Not Shipping to Iran Yet, Says Russian Defense Ministry Source
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Following a visit by Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan yesterday, Russian media claimed once again that the S-300 anti-aircraft systems are imminently being delivered to Tehran -- only to have the Defense Ministry issue a rebuttal.

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and other state outlets sourced in the Iranian general staff indicated that tomorrow, February 18, the first batch of the S0300PMU-2s, known as in Russian were heading from "a port in Astrakhan to Iran," and that the Iranian defense minister himself would even take part in a closed send-off ceremony.

But in a statement to the press, a Russian Defense Ministry source told TASS:

The contract was concluded in 2007, but in 2010, then-President Dmitry Medvedev halted them due to UN sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program.

But it's not just the Russian media today; it's been Russian officials for the last 6 months who keep implying that the S-300s are already shipped -- starting with Vice Premier Dmitry Rogozin, who is in charge of the military and space programs, and various state defense contractors.

Rogozin said last year that Iran had dropped its $4 billion dollar lawsuit against Russia as a result of "long, difficult and subtle" negotiations, a TASS reported, which paved the way for the delivery; President Vladimir Putin then said he was lifting the embargo since the nuclear deal had been made.

But then the specifics became vague, and in recent months, Rogozin and others have made either vague or misleading statements about the S-300s delivery, which then have been picked up by the Western press. Here's the stories we have run since November:

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